'Norm-Consistent Conspiracy Theory & Collective Action - Study 3'
(AsPredicted #201,945)
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1) Have any data been collected for this study already?
No, no data have been collected for this study yet.

2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study?
Which thoughts and motivations correlate with support for (normative and non-normative) pro-environmental collective action?

For the links between the belief in (im)plausible climate policy conspiracy theories and NON-NORMATIVE pro-environment action, we hypothesize:
H1: Stronger belief in a plausible climate policy conspiracy theory predicts higher support for non-normative pro-environmental collective action.
H2: Stronger belief in an implausible climate policy conspiracy theory predicts higher support for non-normative pro-environmental collective action.

For the links between the belief in (im)plausible climate policy conspiracy theories and NORMATIVE pro-environmental action we don't have a clear hypothesis, but will examine the links between belief in a plausible climate policy conspiracy theory and normative pro-environmental action, as well as the belief in an implausible climate policy conspiracy theory and normative pro-environmental action as open research questions.

3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured.
Support for non-normative pro-environmental collective action is measured using nine items (e.g., "I support the decision of some climate activists to engage in civil disobedience for a change in climate policy").

Support for normative pro-environmental collective action is measured using eight items (e.g., "I support climate groups organizing political demonstrations or protests on climate policy issues.").

4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to?
There is no manipulation. Predictors are measured as follows:
The belief in a plausible climate policy conspiracy theory will be assessed using six items (e.g., "Discussions between politics and business on climate issues take place behind closed doors").
The belief in implausible climate policy conspiracy theories will be assessed using six items (e.g., "The voting results on climate policy in the Bundestag are significantly influenced by bought votes.")

5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis.
We will first subject the 12 items measuring climate policy conspiracy belief to a confirmatory factor analysis (oblimin rotation, 2 factors). We will only include items in the final scales that have a loading on the factor they were assigned to a priori that is (a) above .40 and (b) .15 larger than their cross-loading on the other factor. The items identified this way will be averaged to form the belief in plausible and implausible climate policy conspiracy scores.
We will also average the items assessing support for normative and non-normative pro-environmental collective action to form the two target scores.

We test our hypotheses by computing bivariate Pearson correlations between the four core variables.

6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations.
To be included, participants need (a) to be at least 18 years old, (b) be fluent in German, and (c) agree that their data is used for scientific purposes. Participants will be excluded if they fail one of two attention checks (i.e., do not mark a specific response alternative) and if they indicate that they participated more than once.

7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size?
No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined.
Based on a power analysis for a correlation (power of .80, alpha-error probability .05, minimum effect size in previous study: r = .15), we aim at having a sample size of N = 343 after excluding participants based on our exclusion criteria. Given the strict exclusion criteria, we will collect 400 observations. Data collection will be stopped after 10 days in case the desired sample size will not be reached (earlier).

8) Anything else you would like to pre-register?
(e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?)
As exploratory analyses, we will examine if results are moderated by political orientation (assessed with one item ranging from left to right)