'Conspiray beliefs and opposition to wind farms (longitudinal)'
(AsPredicted #113,498)
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1) Have any data been collected for this study already?
No, no data have been collected for this study yet.

2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study?
Research question: Does believing in conspiracy theories predict opposition to wind farms across time?
Hypothesis: Higher conspiracy mentality (t1) predicts more opposition to wind farms (t2).

3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured.
As the main DV (measured only at t2), we will ask participants to indicate their willingness to vote in favor of constructing five wind energy plants in a fictitious referendum in their hometown (rating from 0% = "I would definitely vote with no" to 100% = "I would definitely vote with yes").

Control measures at t1 and t2:
- attitude towards the construction of wind farms close to one's hometown (4 items)
- attitude towards the construction of wind farms in general (4 items)

4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to?
No experimental conditions. All participants will receive the same set of items.
Conspiracy mentality (12 items) will be assessed as independent variable at both timepoints.

5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis.
We will conduct a cross-lagged panel analysis in an SEM to test our main hypothesis. Evidence for the hypothesis would be given, if conspiracy mentality at t1 negatively predicts the willingness to vote in favor of constructing the wind energy plants at t2, controlling for autocorrelation (here: the attitude towards the construction of wind farms close to one's hometown at t1).
If the attitude towards the construction of wind farms close to one's hometown (t1) and the willingness to vote in favor of constructing five fictitious wind energy plants (t2) are very highly correlated (i.e., r > .70), we will use the attitude towards the construction of wind farms in general (t1) to control for autocorrelation.

6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations.
Exclusion criteria:
- less than 18 years old
- psychology students
- not speaking German fluently
- taking the survey multiple times (at one timepoint)
- failing both attention check items (t1: "The Government deceives the citizens. Please answer this question with '1 = strongly disagree'", "Great events need equally great explanations. Please answer this question with '4'"; t2 will include two similar items) at one of the timepoints

The remaining data will be checked for outliers using studentized deleted residuals (SDR) from a multiple regression of the willingness to vote in favor of constructing the wind energy plants (t2) on conspiracy mentality (t1) and the attitude towards the construction of wind farms (t1) as described under #5. Participants with an absolute SDR > 2.59 in the multiple regression analysis will be excluded from further analysis.

7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size?
No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined.
We are aiming to have at least 400 participants in our sample at t2. This would allow to find a small effect (f² = .02) in a multiple regression analysis testing R² increase by one of two predictors, alpha = .05, power = .80.

To account for a potential attrition of 40%, we aim to collect 670 participants at t1. However, we will stop collecting data at t1 after 7 days, even if this number is not yet reached.

8) Anything else you would like to pre-register?
(e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?)
Secondary analyses: We will also test the longitudinal effects of specific conspiracy beliefs on opposition to wind farms and of conspiracy mentality on specific conspiracy beliefs following the procedure described under #5. To this end, we will additionally assess specific conspiracy beliefs about the expansion of wind energy (5 items) at both timepoints.

T2 will be conducted approximately 4 months after completion of t1.

For exploratory purposes, we will include a measure of political orientation (1 item) at both timepoints.