'Using Forecast Emotion to Guide Future Decisions'
Created: 04/21/2021 11:58 AM (PT)
This is an anonymized version of the pre-registration. It was created by the author(s) to use during peer-review.
A non-anonymized version (containing author names) should be made available by the authors when the work it supports is made public.
1) Have any data been collected for this study already?
No, no data have been collected for this study yet.2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study?
It is widely accepted that people rely on inaccurate emotion forecasts to make decisions. But reliance on forecasts, and accuracy, may vary across features of emotion (i.e., emotional intensity, frequency, duration). This study will assess how much participants rely on forecasts of of different features of emotion to make a future decision. We hypothesize that participants will report relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide whether to take a trip this summer to spend time with family or friends.3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured.
Dependent variable: participants' ratings of how much they will rely on forecasts of the intensity, frequency, and duration of happiness and unhappiness to make a future decision. Survey instructions and questions: Covid-19 cases are finally declining and more people are vaccinated. As a result, many people are deciding whether to take a trip this summer to spend time with family or friends. To help them make decisions, like whether to take a trip this summer, people sometimes try to imagine or forecast how outcomes will make them feel. Feelings, like happiness or unhappiness, have several features: Intensity - whether a feeling is gentle or strong. Frequency - whether a feeling occurs rarely or often. Duration - whether a feeling lasts a short or long time. The next questions ask how much you will imagine your future feelings in order to decide whether to take a trip this summer to spend time with family or friends.
To decide whether to take a trip this summer to spend time with family or friends, how much will you rely on your forecasts about these features of your future HAPPINESS? To decide whether to take a trip this summer, I'll think about…. [Scale 1 (Not at all important when I make my decision) to 9 (Extremely important when I make my decision)].
1. How intensely happy I'll feel on the trip (intensity)
2. How long I'll feel happy on the trip (duration)
3. How often I'll feel happy on the trip (frequency)
To decide whether to take a trip this summer to spend time with family or friends, how much will you rely on your forecasts about these features of your future UNHAPPINESS? To decide whether to take a trip this summer, I'll think about….
4. How intensely unhappy I'll feel if I don't go on the trip (intensity)
5. How long I'll feel unhappy if I don't go on the trip (duration)
6. How often I'll feel unhappy if I don't go on the trip (frequency)4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to?
The survey has a within subjects design -- no conditions.5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis.
We will conducted an ANOVA on ratings of reliance on different features of forecast emotion. The within subject factors will be emotion valence (happiness, unhappiness) and emotion feature (intensity, frequency, duration).6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations.
We will exclude participants who do not complete the reliance questions, complete the 20 minute survey in 5 minutes or less, or select the same scale rating for 10 or more questions in a row, suggesting that they are not attending to the questions.7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size?
No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined.
These questions are part of a larger study. All 399 participants who completed a prior survey will be invited to complete this survey.8) Anything else you would like to pre-register?
(e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?)
Participants will also be asked exploratory questions about whether the pandemic will make it difficult to feel happy, or make them especially happy, traveling to spend time with family or friends. In closing, we will recommend following CDC guidelines about masking, social distancing, and travel.