Author(s) This pre-registration is currently anonymous to enable blind peer-review. It has 3 authors.
Pre-registered on 2024/01/15 - 12:34 PM (PT)
1) Have any data been collected for this study already? No, no data have been collected for this study yet.
2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study? What is the influence of behavioral factors on the intention of farms in Germany to adopt silvopastoral systems for grazing cattle?
3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured. The survey starts by a description of the silvopastoral agroforestry system with trees for wood production and grazing cattle, given that those systems are not yet well known by German farmers.
The dependent variable is the stated intention to adopt and manage the described silvopastoral system on pasture for cattle within the next five years with subsequent management of at least ten years. We rely on 4 statements, all measured on a five-point Likert-scale (very unlikely - very likely) and following the TACT principles, i.e. target, action, context, time.
The statements aim at capturing slight differences in adoption intention, i.e. "I will be looking into", "I am planning to establish", "I will not establish". If correlation between the statements is high, estimates will be performed using only one of the statements as dependent variable. If the correlation is low, estimates will be performed with each of the statements as dependent variable.
4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to? Farm managers of cattle farms in Germany are invited via an access panel by the market research institute agri experts. The survey restricts participants to farms with cattle for milk or meat production with access to pasture by a filter question.
5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis. We rely on a behavioral model for analyzing intentions to adopt a silvopastoral system, i.e. switching from a pure/traditional pasture grazing system for cattle towards a silvopastoral system. We base our model on the framework proposed by Gesk et al. (2021), rooted in, among others, the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Unified Theory of Technology Acceptance and Use 2, and the Protection Motivation Theory. This framework allows us to evaluate (i) perceptions of the current pasture system (attitude) and its climate change risk exposure (perceived vulnerability towards climate change and climate change adaptation avoidance following Mitter et al. (2019)); (ii) perceptions of the silvopastoral system (perceived efficacy, feared adaptation costs, facilitating conditions, perceived norms, attitude) as antecedents for intentions to adopt silvopastoral systems.
All constructs are based on different item statements measured by Likert-scales. Internal consistency, i.e. the reliability of the scale, will be evaluated using standard approaches. We plan to apply a structural equation modelling approach. Hypothesis testing will be carried out using statistical null hypothesis significance testing under the assumption of random sampling. Due to non-random sampling, testing will be enriched by analyzing compatibility intervals.
References
Gesk, T. S., Wichmann, J., & Leyer, M. (2021). Health Information Systems: Potential Users balancing Adaptive and Maladaptive Appraisals (ICIS 2021 Proceedings No. 16). https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2021/is_health/is_health/16
Mitter, H., Larcher, M., Schönhart, M., Stöttinger, M., & Schmid, E. (2019). Exploring Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria. Environmental Management, 63(6), 804–821. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-019-01158-7
6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations. We will exclude participants who gave non-sensical answers in the statements in the dependent variable, i.e. very likely to not establish and very likely to plan to establish a silvopastoral system. We will exclude participants completing the survey in less than 8 minutes, those selecting "no answer" in more than 50% of answers, and those which perform "straightlining", i.e. always chose the same column in the Likert-scale.
7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size? No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined. Initial recruitment is done via an access panel. Further recruitments may be performed through a database by the market research institute agri experts. If the quota of 256 participants was not reached, further recruitment will be performed via announcements on specialized media outlets by the market research institute. After six weeks the survey will be closed, even if the quota has not been reached.
8) Anything else you would like to pre-register? (e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?) We include a question on already implemented climate change adaptations for cattle production on the farm. For exploratory purposes, we also include questions capturing self-identity with and hedonistic motivations towards adopting silvopastoral systems.
