'POSAP Crime'
(AsPredicted #124947)
Author(s)
This pre-registration is currently anonymous to enable blind peer-review.
It has 5 authors.
Pre-registered on
03/13/2023 10:27 AM (PT)
1) Have any data been collected for this study already?It's complicated. We have already collected some data but explain in Question 8 why readers may consider this a valid pre-registration nevertheless.
2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study? Main question: Are personality characteristics related to crime?
Hypotheses:
1. The Dark Factor of Personality is positively related to crime.
2. Honesty-Humility is negatively related to crime.
3. Conscientiousness is negatively related to crime.
4. Agreeableness vs. Anger is negatively related to crime.
5. Extraversion shows no relation to crime above our smallest effect size of interest.
6. Openness to Experience shows no relation to crime above our smallest effect size of interest.
Given different perspectives (also within the research team) with regard to what to expect concerning Emotionality, we investigate its relation to crime from an exploratory perspective.
Note that the hypotheses refer to the bivariate relations between the personality characteristics and crime.
3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured. The variables were either assessed during the first wave of the Danish Personality and Social Behavior Panel (POSAP) or obtained from the official registers of Statistics Denmark (DST).
Outcome: Crime
- defined as whether a person was convicted of at least one criminal offense (excluding traffic offenses)
- DST, register KRAF, variable AFG_GER7 (years 1980-2021)
Predictors:
- Dark Factor of Personality: POSAP, D16, 16 items
- Honesty-Humility: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
- Emotionality: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
- Extraversion: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
- Agreeableness vs. Anger: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
- Conscientiousness: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
- Openness to Experience: POSAP, HEXACO-60, 10 items
4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to? The study is correlational in nature. Thus, participants will not be assigned to different conditions.
5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis. Hypotheses 1-4 will be tested using separate simple logistic regression models for each of the personality characteristics with crime as the outcome.
Hypotheses 5 and 6 will be investigated using equivalence testing (two one-sided tests procedure), defining the smallest effect size of interest (SESOI) as OR = 1.20 and OR = 1/1.20, respectively.
Missing data concerning the personality characteristics will be addressed using multiple imputation.
6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations. We exclude the data of participants who did not provide consent, did not complete at least the HEXACO-60, or answered the attention check item incorrectly.
7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size?
No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined. The base sample of our study includes 12,496 individuals who provided at least data on the HEXACO-60. A sensitivity analysis suggested that a simple logistic regression model yields a power of 95% to detect an effect of at least OR = 1.16 at this sample size, assuming an α-level of 5% and a conditional probability of .05 under the null hypothesis.
z tests - Logistic regression
Options: Large sample z-Test, Demidenko (2007) with var corr
Analysis: Sensitivity: Compute required effect size
Input:
Tail(s) = Two
Effect direction = p2 >= p1
α err prob = 0.05
Pr(Y=1|X=1) H0 = 0.05
Power (1-β err prob) = 0.95
Total sample size = 12496
R² other X = 0
X distribution = Normal
X parm μ = 0
X parm σ = 1
Output:
Critical z = 1.9599640
Odds ratio = 1.1588648
Actual power = 0.9500000
8) Anything else you would like to pre-register?
(e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?) Register data from DST as well as personality data from POSAP were obtained prior to preregistration. The register data have been inspected before to get an overview of the data structure. Also, the POSAP data have been cleaned in terms of the criteria listed in Question 6. Importantly, the personality data have not been linked to the register data prior to preregistration.
We plan to perform a number of exploratory analyses to further explore the relation between personality characteristics and crime.
Version of AsPredicted Questions: 2.00