#62469 | AsPredicted

As Predicted:Logic song (#62469)


Created:       04/02/2021 01:55 AM (PT)

This is an anonymized version of the pre-registration.  It was created by the author(s) to use during peer-review.
A non-anonymized version (containing author names) should be made available by the authors when the work it supports is made public.

1) Have any data been collected for this study already?
It's complicated. We have already collected some data but explain in Question 8 why readers may consider this a valid pre-registration nevertheless.

2) What's the main question being asked or hypothesis being tested in this study?
The release of the Logic song 1-800-273-8255 on April 28 2017 was assoicated with (1, primary hyp.) a decrease in suicides and (2, secondary hyp.) an increase in crisis calls to the Lifeline.

3) Describe the key dependent variable(s) specifying how they will be measured.
Daily suicide counts USA, 2010-2018. ARIMA analysis up to three weeks before release (ie until April 6 2017); estimating effects of periods of media attion to the song with separate and a combined dummy variable. Separate events are (1) the release; 82) MTV Music Awards August 2017 (3) Grammy Awards 2018 (January) . Effects of any of these events will be assessed with separate and one combined dummy variable. Any other periods of increased attention to the song as indicated by Tweets about Logic 1-800-273-8255 will be explored additionally. Exposure periods will be estimated by measuring daily social media (tweet) volume related to Logic 1-800-273-8255 -- periods with high attention will be defined as exposure periods.

4) How many and which conditions will participants be assigned to?
none.

5) Specify exactly which analyses you will conduct to examine the main question/hypothesis.
ARIMA times series analysis (see above) using SPSS Expert Modeller

6) Describe exactly how outliers will be defined and handled, and your precise rule(s) for excluding observations.
We will model outliers where necerssary (additive and level-changes )

7) How many observations will be collected or what will determine sample size?
No need to justify decision, but be precise about exactly how the number will be determined.

Each day from Jan 1 2010 to Dec 31 2018

8) Anything else you would like to pre-register?
(e.g., secondary analyses, variables collected for exploratory purposes, unusual analyses planned?)

Some but not all data necessary for the analysis have already been collected. Data analysis is about to start.